Ever wondered why bookmakers set the odds for teams to win specific matches the way they do? Is there some secret formula the bookies know about, which the general public does not?
If you are interested in engaging in sports betting but do not want to lose money, our guide can help. We dive deep into how bookmakers set odds for matches and how you can better predict the results of football matches.
Using these tips to predict match results, you can be a lot more successful each time you place a bet on a game in the Premier League, Champions League, European Championships or even the World Cup.
Understanding variables in team performance
Bookmakers use specific variables to understand how a team performs and how they may perform in the future.
These variables include goal difference, shots on target, shots off target, and those shots’ location. Experts also assess possession and shots conceded when analyzing a team’s performances.
Collecting such data is a painstaking process. Luckily for betters, such data is available for free if you look at websites such as Sky Sports, ESPN or BBC. You can see how a team performs in their previous five to ten matches to understand better their form leading up to a game.
Home advantage matters
Statistics show that teams playing at home will perform much better than teams playing away from home. Betting sites believe that a team playing at home will likely have a +0.74 goal advantage, while they also get +0.37 more chances at goal than the opposition.
Teams are more clinical at home, while they are also likely to have more possession. That does not mean the home team will always win, as you must also analyze individual team trends.
Recent performances and injuries
Attempting to predict a match result without knowing the broader context of the game is a fool’s errand. You must be aware of how each team performs in the past five to ten matches, whether all their major players are fit, and if they are resting any important players for future matches.
Sometimes a team can be a heavy favourite before announcing one or two players missing the game through injury. Those odds can switch drastically, as bookmakers know that the team will perform worse without their best players.
For example, if news emerged that Lionel Messi would miss the next Barcelona vs Real Madrid match, Real Madrid would be heavy favourites to win.
Understand the match context
Football matches should never be seen as isolated events, as they usually make up a small part of a league or cup tournament. Is the match a cup tie, which means one team is out of the competition if they lose? Is it a league match where both teams may benefit from a draw?
Rivalries and matchup histories
Sometimes a match does not go the way recent performance trends predicted, especially if there is an intense rivalry between two teams. Examples are rivalries with the same city or historical rivalries between two big clubs in the same country.
The matchup history between the two teams in question is also essential. Look up the head-to-head results of the past five or six matches between the two teams. Is there a trend that says something different from the two teams’ overall quality, form, and fitness?
How to succeed with sports betting
Think of sports betting as the ability to interpret historical data and give it context. Predicting the result of a football match is not an exact science, as upsets can happen in sports. You can, however, drastically reduce your chance of failure by analyzing both teams using the tips above.
Betters are also more likely to succeed with their bets if they are relaxed and calm in the leadup to matches. You have done your research and made a prediction. Stick with that bet unless there is some drastic change in the match. Significant changes include an injury to a key player or an early red card for one team.
You may even want to play a game like first person football studio to have some fun, especially if you are waiting during the halftime interval of a match you are watching. Rather than stressing about how the game will conclude in the second half, you can relax with some football studio and then get back to watching.
Bet smart and win money
Sports betting is an excellent way to profit from your investment, especially if you are a fan of a specific sport. Those people who love watching European football can make a lot of money betting on individual matches.
Understand how each team will perform in a match to more accurately predict the outcome of every game. Seasoned betters can effectively predict whether the home team or away team will win or if the match will end in a draw.