Expected Goals, Randomness and Risk: Why Football Probabilities Never Behave Like Casino Math
A team dominates possession for 85 minutes, racks up eighteen shots, hits the post twice, and loses 1-0 to a deflected corner. Every fan has watched a match like this. Every analyst has one bookmarked in memory. This is one reason football keeps its grip on us even in the era of touch maps, pressing metrics and increasingly detailed statistical models. Chances do not equal goals. Performance does not always equal the result. That raises a question worth asking directly.…
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