What stats (and recent history) tell us about betting on the Premier League

We are but a handful games – seven at the time of writing – into the Premier League season, but already we are starting to see patterns form on how the season may pan out. Sure, there is enough time for teams like Manchester United, Wolves and Watford, to get their act together and reach their respective goals. Yet, pretty soon, a sluggish start can turn into a season long nightmare. Although, the flip side is that a good start can lead to great things; we’re looking at you, Leicester City.

Regardless, there is enough in the way of usable data for bettors to use in the new season. Indeed, some of the trends will have continued on from last season and previous season. So, what has become apparent and what can we use? Here are some musings for bettors on the new Premier League season:

Bournemouth should be the darlings of punters

In the Premier League, there are lots of popular markets for football betting, but punters will often look at the stats-driven betting opportunities, such as both teams to score or over 2.5 goals. The Cherries have scored in every game and conceded in every game this season, making them the perfect candidate for the both teams to score category. Moreover, six out of seven of Bournemouth’s games have yielded more than three goals, a trend that bettors will be keen to see continuing.  

United’s Game Management is Awful

Manchester United’s problems this season have been well documented But, from the perspective of betting, the team is causing no end of headaches. Losing leads against Southampton, Arsenal and Wolves has shown just how poor the side is at managing a game. It’s a young team, of course, so they might gain the level of nous required to manage a game, but at the moment they look like they don’t know what they are doing. From such travails comes an opportunity, however. United have outscored opponents in the first half, and they have been outscored in the second half. That’s useful to know for live betting.

The Big 6 is No More

As was shown towards the end of last season, a gulf has appeared separating Manchester City and Liverpool from the rest of the so-called Big 6. Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United lost around a dozen games between them at the during the April/May run-in, whereas City and Liverpool were almost flawless. That run of form has continued. 888sport have rated City at 4/5 and Liverpool at 23/20 to win the Premier League. There is a reason that Spurs are priced at 80/1 and United at 250/1. It’s a two-horse race already.

Leicester have the goods

This may look foolish if you read this after Leicester’s trip to Anfield on 5th October, but the side currently 3rd have an inviting run of fixtures after that leading right up to Christmas. Under the tutelage of Brendan Rodgers, Leicester have the joint best defence in the league and have been banging in the goals when it matters. Notably, they have played just one team in the bottom eight – and thrashed them 5-0. This could be the chance a team outside the Big 6 was hoping for, and you can see the sense in backing the 11/4 for Leicester to grab a Champions League spot at the end of the season.

Hope for Watford

Watford are currently languishing at the bottom of the Premier League without a win and four points from safety. Yet, they are not the favourites to go down and are actually odds against to do so. Why have the bookies set out this stall? Because Watford have been unlucky. This is borne out in the stats: Watford have had the 4th most shots in the league (105) and an equal number of shots on target to United (30). The point is that their luck could change, as long as they get to grips with a leaky defence.

What stats (and recent history) tell us about betting on the Premier League

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