Home of football statistics and historyLooking forward to the FIFA World Cup in Russia this year but wondering who would be winning the tournament? Or the league matches itself? Predictions aren’t as easy as it was a couple of world cups back, and with the competitive teams out there fighting it out, it can get difficult to predict a winner.
With the demise of Paul the octopus, our favorite FIFA World Cup Predictor, we were all at a loss of heart about knowing the consequences of the upcoming WC’s. So instead of losing heart, Investment banking firm UBS went on to find an algorithm, to predict the winner of the upcoming World Cup 2018, which is scheduled to be held in Russia.
The analysis seemed harder than rating top new uk casinos, since every country landing up on the field wants a square chance at giving their best on the ground and takes the cup home. Though, it was done with a methodology which is followed in investment banking and is considered is consistent, in the arena of sports, you never know what might strike off.
The scheme involved – How Are the Ranking the Numbers?
The question when it comes to making an algorithm for the right predictions is that how do you go about it?
UBS, like a lot of investment banks, didn’t want to be surprised in this World Cup. So they made a team of 18 analysts come up with an idea to predict a winner. The group of analysts and editors then came up with computer stimulation and that stimulation was made to run 10,000 times.
The Swiss lender claims to have identified the key variables existing so as to identify the outcome of the situation. Using the process, each team has been first grouped according to the perennial difficulty a particular team would have to face to qualify.
For example, Group A consisted of teams of Egypt, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia. These were considered the weakest in the lot. Whereas Group H had the teams whose predictability were very tactical, as all of them stood neck to neck. These included Japan, Columbia and Senegal. UBS tried to avoid it’s previous mistakes and made a 17 paper research paper on the same. Back in 2014, UBS predicted Brazil’s win only to see Brazil being washed out on the semi final stage. So, while no outcome can be 100% accurate, the investment firm does want to bring in some predictability to the games.
Outcome – What Can We Expect This Time Around?
According to the analysis, defending champions Germany has the highest odds to win the championship. Germany accounted a likelihood of 24% to attain the winning streak. While countries such as Brazil and Spain are predicted a close second, underdog countries such as England could also predict for the win since it looped for the list a really long time. Despite having terrible rankings, host country Russia could also have a fair chance of getting a chair at the winner’s table.
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