The Science Behind Football Betting: What The Numbers Say

Football betting has become a popular pastime for football fans. Anytime they place a wager and watch a game, they become more invested in the gameplay, which makes the matches more exciting. Even when the outcomes do not turn out to be favourable, many punters can agree that online football betting adds a fun twist to the games. But how do bookies come up with odds, and what do they actually represent? Our guide walks you through the nuances to help you make more informed decisions.

The Truth about Odds

Suppose you come across two teams, A and B, with odds of 2.10 and 1.50. Would you assume that B had the higher chance of winning? If you are like most punters, you would think that B was the favourite. But here is the thing. Odds are not usually a mere reflection of probability. Instead, they come down to probability, profitability, and public opinion. Let’s explain how these three factors play a role in the setting of odds and why what you see is not always a true reflection of probability:

Step One: Probability

Before bookies can assign odds, they go through an extensive process where they weigh the likelihood of a team or player winning. They do this by reviewing the current and past data on the team or player, while paying particular attention to things like:

• Injuries.
• Changes in management.
• Team or player morale.
• Playing surfaces.
• Who is away and who is home?
• The weather.
• The current lineup.

These and more factors play an important role in predicting the outcome of the game. For example, if team A is known for performing well at home and has previously beaten team B on home ground, the odds will be in its favor. At the same time, if team A usually relies on a star player but the said player will not be in the game, its chances of winning suffer. It is all about which team ranks highest once all the factors have been weighed.

At this point, you may be wondering just how bookies are able to deal with all this data and come up with reasonable conclusions. Well, they employ statisticians who use different probability models to predict the likely outcomes. Eventually, they average the results to come up with the chance.

Step 2: Profitability

Bookies are running businesses. So, as much as they want punters to benefit from placing wagers, they must also ensure that they get a return on their income. After all, they have bills to pay, alongside turning a profit.

Once they come up with the probabilities of each team, they then integrate their desired profit margins, which is what you may have heard punters calling a vig. These margins ensure that no matter how the match plays out, the bookie will turn a profit.

How does it all work? Assuming a fair chance, the total probabilities of both teams would amount to 100%. But with the vig in tow, bookies increase the amount to over 100%, such that their cut is also part of the math. For example, if team A initially had odds of 2.00, the bookie can lower this to 1.90, such that the 0.10 difference adds to their vig. They would also make a corresponding change to the other team to ensure that the final difference (what is above 100%) matches their target return on income.

Usually, these margins average 5 to 10% but it is not uncommon for some sites to have higher margins. But even with a margin as low as 5%, bookies stand a chance to make good money from bets, especially when they have a large audience.

Step 3: Public Opinion

Up to this point, the numbers are usually a matter of fact and profits. But with football attracting attention from all corners of the world, bookies must also pay attention to what other people think. As such, the third step involves adjusting the odds to match public opinion. But why? It is all about risk management.

Think about it this way. If teams A and B are going at each other and the public favours team B, the wagers on B will be plenty. Unfortunately, this increases the bookie’s risk exposure if B actually wins, as they will have to pay out a lot in winnings. So, they often lower the favourite’s odds to make them less appealing and increase the underdog’s odds. Punters then look at the numbers and start thinking that A might actually win, which evens out the numbers. Additionally, bookies must balance their books to match what other sites are offering to avoid losing their clients.

At the end of the day, you have to remember that bookies are in business. So, if they are making changes, it’s not about reflecting the true nature of the market. Instead, they are mitigating their risks by evening out the books so that they turn a profit no matter what happens.

What This Means for You

Odds are not merely a reflection of pure statistics. Instead, they also incorporate profit margins and risk management strategies on the part of the bookies. As such, look at them as tools to help you calculate the expected return on wagers, but not as actual measures of probability.

The Science Behind Football Betting: What The Numbers Say