Home of football statistics and historyArsenal’s first Premier League title since the 2003/04 season seemed like a foregone conclusion until a month ago, but Manchester City have now emerged as the leading candidates to take Liverpool’s crown.
With only four matches left to play, Pep Guardiola’s charges trail the Gunners by three points, albeit with a game in hand, while boasting a superior head-to-head record. The Cityzens also have momentum on their side, having won their last three league outings, including a crunch 2-1 victory over Mikel Arteta’s team at the Etihad Stadium.
As the race tightens, markets around the title winner and individual match outcomes are shifting rapidly, with many fans turning to offers like the 888sport promo code UK to maximise value. In these scenarios, understanding key betting terms—such as odds movement, which reflects changing probabilities, and wagering requirements attached to bonuses—can make a significant difference when navigating the run-in.
Widely expected to take three points in their home clash against Crystal Palace, the ten-time English champions could regain control in the title race as early as next week. If it’s any consolation for the Arsenal faithful, they bounced back from a two-game losing streak with a hard-earned 1-0 home win over Newcastle United last weekend.
However, there’s no margin for error down the final stretch, with another dramatic battle for Premier League supremacy set to go down to the wire, as we look at the final four matchdays.
Matchday 35
Fatigue could be catching up with Arsenal ahead of their must-win home showdown against fellow London rivals Fulham this weekend, following a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid.
Though Arteta is ‘looking forward to home comforts in the return leg’ of Arsenal’s UEFA Champions League semi-final tie, beating the Cottagers feels like a more pressing matter.
History firmly backs Arsenal for success in this fixture, as they’ve gone unbeaten in their last 32 league meetings with Fulham in North London, accounting for the longest active unbeaten streak in home league games against another opponent.
Meanwhile, Man City head to Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium on the back of a come-from-behind 2-1 win against Southampton in the FA Cup semi-finals, which extended their winning run in all competitions to six games.
Guardiola’s side should be equally confident of holding up their end of the bargain on Merseyside. They boast a remarkable 17-game unbeaten streak against the Toffees in the Premier League, bookended by a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture.
Matchday 36
Brentford’s quest to secure their maiden European qualification has faltered lately, with Keith Andrews’ side drawing five consecutive league games before falling to a 2-1 defeat at Manchester United.
Sitting a point adrift of seventh-placed Brentford, the Bees remain in the European picture, but that won’t bother Man City, who have won both competitive clashes this season without conceding a goal.
Nevertheless, the Cityzens would be naive to underestimate the London club here, knowing their last two home league victories against Brentford came by a single-goal margin.
While Guardiola’s side will be heavily favoured to complete a hat-trick of wins against the Bees this season, Arsenal will face relegation-battling West Ham United in a high-stakes clash at London Stadium.
Despite a dreadful domestic campaign, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are fighting for their lives, languishing just two points clear of 18th-placed Tottenham Hotspur after going unbeaten in their last three league games.
Arsenal may have trounced the Irons in their last two away meetings by an aggregate score of 11-2, but West Ham’s renewed sense of urgency in the survival battle could make this a far trickier assignment.
Matchday 37
Arsenal’s home encounter against relegation-bound Burnley looks like their least-demanding fixture on paper, especially given their recent record in this match-up.
A comfortable 2-0 win in November’s reverse clash at Turf Moor stretched the Gunners’ unbeaten run against the Clarets to six Premier League matches, four of which saw them keep a clean sheet.
However, Arteta’s title-bidding team cannot afford to take anything for granted after picking up just one win in the last three league meetings between the sides in North London, failing to find the net twice in the sequence.
Gameweek 37 could prove tricky for both title contenders, as Man City travel to the Vitality Stadium to take on top-seven hopefuls Bournemouth, whose current unbeaten run in the Premier League stands at 14 games.
City can draw confidence from beating the Cherries in their last three competitive showdowns, including a dominant 3-1 triumph at the Etihad earlier this season.
It’s also worth noting that they had won their first seven away clashes since Bournemouth first earned top-flight promotion in 2015 before a 2-1 defeat last season.
Nominated for April’s ‘Manager of the Month’ in the Premier League, Guardiola will be keen to avenge that heartbreak and strengthen his near-perfect managerial record against Andoni Iraola (W5, L1).
Matchday 38
It may all come down to the final round, when Arsenal take a short cross-London trip to face last season’s FA Cup winners Palace at Selhurst Park.
The Gunners have squeezed past Oliver Glasner’s charges in both competitive encounters this term, including a narrow 1-0 league triumph at the Emirates in October.
Further confidence comes from Arsenal’s ongoing three-game winning streak at Selhurst Park, during which they scored eight goals and conceded just one in return.
However, with Palace’s last home loss in any competition dating back to early February, Arteta’s team can expect a stern test in a potentially history-defining fixture.
Meanwhile, the last time Man City faced Aston Villa on the final Premier League weekend, they produced a dramatic comeback victory to secure the title in one of the most memorable finales in the division’s history.
Indeed, back in the 2021/22 season, they fought back from a two-goal deficit to claim a stunning 3-2 win and beat Liverpool to the crown, courtesy of a one-point margin.
That triumph forms part of the Cityzens’ jaw-dropping 15-game winning home streak against the Lions in the Premier League, potentially forming a perfect backdrop for another title-clinching occasion at the Etihad.
Game in hand
Despite Man City’s two-game winning league run, Palace have been a thorn in Guardiola’s side, avoiding defeat twice on their last four league visits to Manchester.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Eagles scored precisely two goals in each of those four clashes, highlighting the magnitude of the task awaiting the Cityzens on May 13.
It’s also difficult to overlook Palace’s sensational win in last season’s FA Cup final, a result that proved they can rise to the occasion against elite opposition on the biggest stage.
With that in mind, Man City would be well-advised not to underestimate Glasner’s fearless side in a fixture that could have huge implications in the title race.
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