How often does the underdog win in knockout ties?

Football betting makes up the largest percentage of all bets in the UK, which makes sense when you consider how unpredictable the outcomes are. With that, underdog wins are statistically 50% likely to happen in football. When you compare that to American football, which is 35% likely to happen, you can guess why it’s the popular choice. No one wants to bet on a sport that is completely predictable. In almost every game, there is a bookies’ favourite and an underdog, even if the teams are evenly matched in stats. When you bet on the underdog and win, you can make good money back on your original stake. The question is, how often do the underdogs win? The simple answer is that it’s hard to guess, but we’ll give you tips below to help you win that underdog bet.

What is underdog betting?

As you will have guessed, underdog betting is a bet on the outside odds. When they win, this causes an upset in betting terms. When you go to the bookies, underdog bets are often referred to as outside odds. Although you can win high on these bets, you need to do your homework to ensure your team stands a chance. If you wish to, you could bet small on the underdog and larger on the favourite. That way, you stand to make money regardless of the outcome. That being said, this betting format wouldn’t be viable long term.

Top prediction rules for upsets

Indeed, underdog wins happen more in football, especially when it comes to tiebreakers. However, you shouldn’t just bet on the outside odds for the sake of it. Whenever you place a bet, you need to ensure that you have a good reason; underdog wins being equally likely doesn’t cut it. The trick is to know when to bet on the underdog. Unfortunately, there’s no definitive equation to help you out. However, you can follow the guidance below, and you’ll be well on your way. Also, you can check out these expert Champions League tips.  


You need to look at the underdog’s history. Do they have a track record for beating the favourites? Is there a larger game coming up? Are the favourites too smug that they overlook the underdogs? One of the greatest recent examples is when Manchester United was thrashed 4-1 by Watford. Although this isn’t a science, it’s certainly a component to consider.

Injuries and suspension

Players get injured or suspended in football, and it can be a real hindrance for elite teams. If the favourites are down by their star defender or striker, it could throw out their entire style. If you want to make the most of this, you need to follow the news closely. There will be a short window between the news breaking and the odds changing.


Player motivation is enormous when it comes to underdog betting. Perhaps they’re playing against a team they’ve just lost to, or it’s the final of a competition. When a team is feeling motivated, their entire style of play can change. If you’re trying to make the most of this tip, you need to understand the underdog and their reasons to be motivated. Will they have more motivation than the favourite? Remember, it’s a double-edged sword, and it is often highly volatile.

Historic rivalries

When you’re carrying out research, you need to understand the underdog’s record at home and away. Also, you need to take into account any rivalries. Team rivalries can impact the atmosphere in the stadium, which can have a direct effect on the outcome of a match. The most obvious example of this is when you have an underdog play a brilliant team – but they never lose at home. In this case, you would have a “safe” bet on the underdog.

Football is the most popular type of betting in the UK, and there is always room for an underdog win. Knowing exactly how often they win is near impossible, but general statistics show it happens 50% of the time. The key to placing underdog bets is fully understanding the team that you’re betting on. Make sure you do your research and always bet for a reason.

How often does the underdog win in knockout ties?

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