Home of football statistics and historyNext summer marks 60 long years since England claimed their first and only major international trophy, winning the 1966 World Cup on home soil. Since then, English fans have sung songs about football coming every four years, but their lengthy drought refuses to end. And in recent years, the Three Lions have come closer than ever before to finally climbing to the summit, only to be left heartbroken in the cruellest of circumstances.
England’s Recent Heartache
Rewind to 2018. After 18 long years, England finally reached the World Cup semifinals. The bookies thought they were a shoo-in to face France in the final, only for Croatia to break English hearts once more, courtesy of Mario Mandzukic’s extra-time winner.
In 2021 and again in 2024, Gareth Southgate led England to successive European Championship finals, only to lose on both occasions. First, it was the giant Gianluigi Donnarumma securing Italy’s penalty shootout glory at Wembley. Then, it was Mikel Oyarzabal bagging a late winner for Spain in Berlin. Those two defeats ultimately saw England part ways with their most successful manager since that maiden triumph in 1966, turning to a German, specifically former Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel, in a bid to finally break their curse.
The Contenders
In qualifying for next summer’s showdown, no team was more impressive than England. Tuchel led the Three Lions to a perfect eight wins from eight without conceding a single goal. Those exploits have prompted the bookies to sit up and take notice.
Online betting sites have installed England as a 13/2 second favorite to win the World Cup, narrowly behind 11/2 frontrunners Spain. A popular betting tool shows just how close the two teams are in the betting markets, as opposed to the chasing pack. This odds calculator demonstrates that a $10 bet on Spain would result in $45 in winnings, with the same bet on England resulting in $55. Compare that to the $80 a bet on joint-third favorites France, Brazil, and Argentina would pay, and it’s obvious just how far clear the two top-ranked teams are of the rest of the field.
So, with such lofty billing surrounding England, it begs one question: Is football finally coming home? Well, here’s their path to the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19th, so you can decide for yourself.
Croatia Lurks Once More
Both Tuchel and England exited the recent World Cup group stage draw somewhat apprehensive, knowing that their first game in North America will come against their nemesis, Croatia. That 2018 semifinal defeat still cuts deep, as does a 3-2 Croatian victory at Wembley a decade prior, which stopped England from qualifying for Euro 2008. The two rivals were drawn together in Group L, and their clash on June 17th at the 100,000-capacity AT&T Stadium in Dallas will set the tone for the rest of the tournament.
Next up, England will face Ghana in Boston, with the Black Stars led by English-born talisman Antoine Semenyo. The Bournemouth striker will be aiming to deliver a dagger to the hopes of the country of his birth, and the Three Lions will have to be acutely aware of the danger he possesses. Finally, Panama will await in the last group game on June 27th at MetLife Stadium, the site of the final, and the Three Lions will be fully expectant of three points.
The Road to the Final
Few of the heavyweights heading to North America have a tougher route to the final than England. Should they win their group, then co-hosts Mexico will await in the Round of 16, in a raucous Mexico City no less. Should they emerge from that Estadio Azteca showdown unscathed, then a mouthwatering quarterfinal rematch with Brazil would be next. The Selecao famously beat the Three Lions at the same stage en route to their fifth title back in 2002, with goals from Rivaldo and a stunning Ronaldinho free-kick downing Sven Goran Eriksson’s men in Shizuoka.
As one might expect, it doesn’t get any easier from there. Portugal or Argentina look to be the most likely opponents in the semifinals, with those two set for a crunch clash between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in their final World Cup appearances. England won’t be confident of facing either, with the Portuguese eliminating England on penalties in back-to-back tournaments in 2004 and 2006, while Argentina eliminated them, also from the spot, in 1998.
In England’s runs to the semifinal in 2018 and their two European Championship finals since then, the critics circled, saying the Three Lions had favorable routes that aided their deep tournament runs. Should England reach the final this time around, those critics will be out of ammunition. Still, if football is to come home, England will have to do it the hard way.
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