Leicester City appear destined for one of the greatest upsets in football history in winning the Premier League. Yet, five points adrift Tottenham Hotspur still dream of glory and even Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger refuses to give up hope whilst there is still a mathematical possibility of a fourth Premier League title. So what does historical precedent tell us about each side’s claim on the Premier League history?
In the table below we look at the margin of difference between the team in first place in the Premier League and those in second and third place, where the leader ended up, who became champion and how many points they achieved.
Season |
Leaders at 31 games |
Points |
2nd at 31 games |
Points |
Points |
Pts ahead |
3rd at 31 games |
Points |
|
Leader’s final position |
Points |
|
Champions |
Points |
Pos. at 31 games |
Comments |
1992-93 |
Manchester United |
60 |
Aston Villa |
59 |
59 |
1 |
Norwich City |
53 |
|
Champions |
84 |
|
Manchester United |
84 |
1st |
42-game season |
1993-94 |
Manchester United |
71 |
Blackburn Rovers |
64 |
64 |
7 |
Newcastle United |
54 |
|
Champions |
92 |
|
Manchester United |
92 |
1st |
42-game season |
1994-95 |
Blackburn Rovers |
69 |
Manchester United |
66 |
66 |
3 |
Newcastle United |
57 |
|
Champions |
89 |
|
Blackburn Rovers |
89 |
1st |
42-game season |
1995-96 |
Manchester United |
64 |
Newcastle United |
64 (pl30) |
64 |
0 |
Liverpool |
59 |
|
Champions |
82 |
|
Manchester United |
82 |
1st |
|
1996-97 |
Manchester United |
63 |
Liverpool |
57 (pl30) |
57 |
6 |
Arsenal |
57 |
|
Champions |
75 |
|
Manchester United |
75 |
1st |
|
1997-98 |
Manchester United |
60 |
Arsenal |
54 (pl28) |
54 |
6 |
Liverpool |
51 (pl 30) |
|
2nd |
77 |
|
Arsenal |
78 |
2nd |
|
1998-99 |
Manchester United |
64 |
Arsenal |
60 |
60 |
4 |
Chelsea |
59 (pl 30) |
|
Champions |
79 |
|
Manchester United |
79 |
1st |
|
1999-00 |
Manchester United |
70 |
Leeds United |
60 |
60 |
10 |
Liverpool |
59 |
|
Champions |
91 |
|
Manchester United |
91 |
1st |
|
2000-01 |
Manchester United |
70 |
Arsenal |
57 |
57 |
13 |
Ipswich Town |
52 |
|
Champions |
80 |
|
Manchester United |
80 |
1st |
|
2001-02 |
Manchester United |
64 |
Arsenal |
63 |
63 |
1 |
Liverpool |
62 |
|
3rd |
77 |
|
Arsenal |
87 |
2nd |
|
2002-03 |
Arsenal |
66 |
Manchester United |
64 |
64 |
2 |
Newcastle United |
61 |
|
2nd |
78 |
|
Manchester United |
83 |
2nd |
|
2003-04 |
Arsenal |
77 |
Chelsea |
70 |
70 |
7 |
Manchester United |
62 |
|
Champions |
90 |
|
Arsenal |
90 |
1st |
|
2004-05 |
Chelsea |
80 |
Arsenal |
67 |
67 |
13 |
Manchester United |
67 |
|
Champions |
95 |
|
Chelsea |
95 |
1st |
|
2005-06 |
Chelsea |
78 |
Manchester United |
69 |
69 |
9 |
Liverpool |
64 (pl 32) |
|
Champions |
91 |
|
Chelsea |
91 |
1st |
|
2006-07 |
Manchester United |
78 |
Chelsea |
72 |
72 |
6 |
Liverpool |
57 |
|
Champions |
89 |
|
Manchester United |
89 |
1st |
|
2007-08 |
Manchester United |
73 |
Chelsea |
68 |
68 |
5 |
Arsenal |
67 |
|
Champions |
87 |
|
Manchester United |
87 |
1st |
|
2008-09 |
Manchester United |
71 |
Liverpool |
70 (pl32) |
70 |
1 |
Chelsea |
67 (pl 32) |
|
Champions |
90 |
|
Manchester United |
90 |
1st |
|
2009-10 |
Manchester United |
69 |
Chelsea |
68 |
68 |
1 |
Arsenal |
67 |
|
2nd |
85 |
|
Chelsea |
86 |
2nd |
|
2010-11 |
Manchester United |
66 |
Arsenal |
59 (pl30) |
59 |
7 |
Manchester City |
56 |
|
Champions |
80 |
|
Manchester United |
80 |
1st |
|
2011-12 |
Manchester United |
76 |
Manchester City |
71 |
71 |
5 |
Arsenal |
58 |
|
2nd |
89 |
|
Manchester City |
89 |
2nd |
|
2012-13 |
Manchester United |
77 |
Manchester City |
65 |
65 |
12 |
Chelsea |
58 |
|
Champions |
89 |
|
Manchester United |
89 |
1st |
|
2013-14 |
Chelsea |
69 |
Liverpool |
68 |
68 |
1 |
Manchester City |
66 (pl 29) |
|
3rd |
82 |
|
Manchester City |
86 |
3rd |
|
2014-15 |
Chelsea |
73 |
Arsenal |
66 (pl32) |
66 |
7 |
Manchester United |
65 (pl 32) |
|
Champions |
87 |
|
Chelsea |
87 |
1st |
|
2015-16 |
Leicester City |
66 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
61 |
61 |
5 |
Arsenal |
55 (pl 30) |
|
? |
? |
|
? |
? |
? |
|
|
With the leader having played 31 games, in Premier League history, only twice has a team come from five points or more behind to win the Premier League. Arsenal was one of those teams when they overcame a five point deficit to defeat Manchester United in 1997-98. However, they had three games in hand on United at that point.
So Manchester City’s 2011-12 success offers the only historical precedent for a Tottenham win, given the current points difference.
For Arsenal, unfortunately for those who would like to shut up Piers Morgan and his band of #WengerOut disloyalists, the omens are even worse. This is particularly galling for Gooners as Arsenal are the side who most effectively countered Leicester’s tactics in beating them 5-2 at the King Power Stadium.
With no precedent for a Premier League team overcoming an 11 point deficit at this point in the season the only glimmers of hope for North London lie in mathematics and the lack of any historical record of success for Leicester who led the First Division league table with five games still to play on 19th April 1963 However, the Foxes only earned one more point in their remaining games, ending up in fourth place, behind Everton, Tottenham and Burnley.
As those, such as the chaps making Premier League predictions at thatsagoal.com know, past performance is no guarantee of future results – and football history provides a plethora of cautionary notes for those who think it’s all over, before it actually is.
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