Home of football statistics and historyFootball was never supposed to provide certainty. That is one of the reasons it stays the world’s most beloved sport.
Every season brings games that look like simple predictions. The overwhelming favourite faces the underdog, models predict a definite result, and the pre-match discussion becomes rather one-sided. But the whistle goes, and ninety minutes later the footballing world has to try to understand what happened.
The fans remember such games because they have made history. The experts remember them because they were challenging everything people believed in. In addition, they are a reminder that football does not follow any script no matter how high or low the teams are ranked, what statistics say, and what the expectations are.
Revisiting some of the sport’s biggest upsets explains why no match should be taken for granted.
Football Has Always Punished Overconfidence
Football has plenty of statistics today.
The supporters can study the predicted goals, possession statistics, previous head-to-head results and tactical tendencies before every game. It helps understand things better, but does not take away the uncertainty.
That is the reason many football fans check the information from multiple sources. Along with statistics and news from the clubs, some of them also turn to offshore sportsbook betting sites to learn what the markets think of the upcoming fixtures, knowing well that their opinions are just opinions, not predictions.
History keeps showing that football delivers its greatest moments when everybody expects the opposite to happen.
1. Greece 1–0 Portugal, UEFA Euro 2004 Final
Rarely has any international competition thrown up such a shock as Euro 2004.
With a team that was considered one of the best in Europe, along with the home ground advantage, Portugal were expected to be among the favorites for this event.
But after coming back from an initial defeat by Greece, they found themselves in the final where they expected to win their first international trophy.
However, Otto Rehhagel’s highly organised Greek team pulled off another defensive performance.
Angelos Charisteas scored the only goal of the match from a corner, and then Greece held Portugal off to give rise to football’s most stunning upset. It is even more surprising since they had defeated the same opponents earlier in the group stage match.
To this day, more than twenty years later, Euro 2004 stands out as a perfect reminder that good organization and confidence can beat good individual ability.
2. Liverpool 3–3 AC Milan (Liverpool Won on Penalties), Champions League Final 2005
The Miracle of Istanbul barely requires any introduction at all.
AC Milan were 3-0 up at half-time after putting together one of the best first halves of football ever played in a European Cup final. With such talents as Kaká, Andrea Pirlo, Paolo Maldini and Andriy Shevchenko in control of proceedings, Liverpool were being thoroughly outplayed.
Then football threw up one of the most astonishing comebacks in history.
In the space of just six minutes of the second half, Steven Gerrard, Vladimir Šmicer and Xabi Alonso turned the game around. Liverpool fought out the rest of the match before Jerzy Dudek saved penalties to make the 2005 final one of the most remarkable comebacks in football history. The UEFA and FIFA will always remember it as one of the landmark matches of the modern Champions League era.
For fans across the world, it serves as evidence that the game isn’t over until it’s over.
3. Brazil 1–7 Germany, FIFA World Cup 2014
Certain matches make their mark due to comebacks.
Others make memories because the score is hard to believe.
Brazil walked into the 2014 World Cup semi-finals with the dreams of a whole nation on their shoulders. With Neymar injured, it was difficult to imagine that the home team would be beaten by the biggest margin in World Cup history.
Not so for Germany.
When Thomas Muller broke the deadlock, disbelief took hold of the spectators. Germany managed to net five goals within twenty-nine minutes and go on to record a remarkable 7-1 win.
For most fans, the match is the biggest shock in World Cup history. FIFA refers to this game whenever they talk about football’s biggest upsets due to both its historical value and how remarkable it was.
4. Barcelona 6–1 Paris Saint-Germain, UEFA Champions League 2017
Of all the teams who had been expected to reach the next round, it was probably Paris Saint-Germain.
With a victory of 4-0 in the first leg, PSG went to Barcelona with the belief that their chances of progression were virtually assured.
Barcelona managed to narrow the gap down until Cavani’s away goal put PSG ahead again. Even with just minutes left on the clock, Barcelona needed to score three goals in order to advance.
Amazingly enough, they did exactly that.
Neymar spurred on the incredible comeback with Sergi Roberto scoring the winning goal in stoppage time, ensuring the legendary “La Remontada.” There have been many great nights in UEFA competitions, but none have done more than change expectations in the dying moments.
5. Leicester City’s Premier League Triumph, 2015–16
To be honest, this was not one single match, but an entire season.
However, the thing is that it turned out to be the best illustration of how the season-long expectations may fail in real life.
Starting their league season after the relegation struggle that occurred several months ago, the Leicester City had a fantastic team with a lot of good players, yet almost no stars. At the same time, other teams were constantly talked about as the ones who are going to fight for the title.
The Leicester City kept accumulating points one match after another.
And even at the end of the season, when some people thought that the battle was over, Leicester succeeded in accomplishing one of the greatest achievements in the history of football.
Unlike a one-day sensation, the triumph of the Leicester became the evidence that the expectations may be reconsidered not only within one single match, but during the entire season.
Why Do Those Matches Attract so Much Attention of Fans?
The common feature of all five matches presented above is the result that nobody expected.
Each of those matches assumed that the obviousness of the situation was clear enough.
The Portugal had more talented players; Milan became unstopable after forty-five minutes. Brazil had the advantage because of the fact that it was a semifinal match in the World Cup. Paris Saint-Germain had a four-goal lead before the second leg. Leicester was supposed to survive in the league.
Everything looked quite reasonable on paper.
However, football provided the fans with something very different on the pitch.
This is one of the reasons why it is worth looking into historical databases. By reviewing such matches, the fans may realize that football develops thanks to unexpected things.
Statistics Help a Lot, but Not Answer All the Questions
Today, football analytics have changed the way football is being analyzed.
The modern football is full of various metrics: expected goals, pressing, passing networks and defensive statistics. This helps to understand what determines success of the teams and increases predictability of the result.
However, there are still some limitations.
Statistics models are not able to measure such factors as confidence, pressure, momentum and all other emotions that may arise during matches of particular importance. One mistake, early goal or a brilliant piece of play may change everything.
For many years now, the FIFA Technical Study Group mentions the importance of tactical adaptability, game management and psychological factors in knockout matches in its reports.
Football’s Biggest Advantage Is its Unpredictability
Every generation of fans has its own match that was incredible to watch.
These matches are remembered for a reason – they show why football remains a sport that attracts millions of people. Statistics provide us with additional information, historical context gives us the perspective and technical preparation helps us to understand more but nobody can ever take the unpredictability of football away from us.
This unpredictability is not a defect.
It is the biggest advantage of the sport.
Some other unbelievable upset is waiting for us in the future. And when it comes true, it will remind us once again that our assumptions about the match are never more than the start of the story.
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