What makes a winning football accumulator? Research shows how to beat the bookies this season

Ever wondered if there was a formula you could follow to make it more likely for you to win your accas? Research by football predictions community KickOff has shed some light on what you should be looking at when building bets.

Over 1.5 million betting selections placed via its community over the past two seasons have been analysed to understand the most successful leagues and markets, as well as the optimum number of selections to place in an accumulator.

Premier League proved most popular with punters across the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons but wasn’t the most successful by some margin.

The Dutch Eredivisie League had the highest percentage of winning selections (64%). By comparison, bet selections in the Premier League and Championship won an average of 56% of the time.

Despite KickOff providing football accumulator tips across 18 competitions, the Premier League and Football League accounted for 50% of all bet selections. Top European leagues – Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 – attracted 34% of all selections and second tier European Leagues – Scottish Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, Danish Superligaen, Portuguese Primeira Liga, Turkish Super Lig – 16% of selections.

Despite being the third most popular, second tier European Leagues were most successful, with top European leagues second and English leagues third.

During the past two seasons, single bets (one selection) have won 51% of the time, doubles (two selections) 31%, trebles 19%, 4-folds 13% and bets with five selections or more have won 4% of the time.

Bets with two selections were the most profitable, yielding a 13% profit across the two seasons.

Despite that, coupons of more than five-folds were most popular, with 71% of bets placed on the site having five selections or more.

When it comes to betting markets the Win/Draw/Win (a home win, draw or away win) market has proved most fruitful for bettors, with 61% of selections winning.

It is closely followed by Under/Over 2.5 Goals (betting on either two or fewer goals to be scored in a game, or two or more) and Team to Score First (betting on whether the home or away team will score first) selections, which both have a 59% win rate.

Win/Draw/Win is also most popular, with 65% of all selections picked from the market. Both Teams to Score (betting on whether or not both teams will score) is second most popular, with 16% of total selections in this market.

What makes a winning football accumulator? Research shows how to beat the bookies this season

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