Home of football statistics and historyThe World Cup is always a great occasion for football fans, not only because of the long four-year wait for the next tournament, but also because it provides a story that takes the world by surprise each time around. Whether it’s a shock group-stage elimination, such as Germany’s in 2018, or an unexpected run into the latter rounds, as seen with Morocco in 2022, there is always at least one team that catches fire.
When these moments arrive, it’s not only fun for neutral fans; it also serves as a reminder that football has a habit of ignoring the form book. In a tournament like the World Cup, a shock result can have a big impact. For seasoned bettors, however, this raises a single question: is there any value in backing the underdogs?
The truth is simple: both yes and no. Some results are genuine upsets that few could truly predict, while others, if you know where to look, are less surprising than many would believe. While the past does not predict the future, studying previous World Cup stories can reveal some interesting lessons.
The Beautiful Chaos of a Single Match
The World Cup lasts around a month, but an underdog story can be told in just 90 minutes. It might not seem like much, but it is plenty of time to cause chaos and change the shape of the tournament. In 1950, the USA beat England 1-0. The result was so unlikely that many thought the newspapers reporting it had made a mistake. At the time, the United States players were all amateurs, while England were a respected nation with some of the finest players in the world.
That result is not the only time a single game has sent shockwaves through the tournament. In 1966, North Korea knocked Italy out of the competition, while Cameroon defeated the reigning world champions in the opening game of the 1990 World Cup in Italy. To make that feat even more remarkable, they scored with ten men on the pitch and held on with just nine, thanks to two red cards.
These results show that a committed team willing to fight to the last minute to protect a shock lead can create moments for the history books. They are also the moments that make betting markets so unsteady. In the long run, underdogs are less likely to triumph. However, in a single game, where just one moment can cause an upset, a well-placed bet on the underdog can be handsomely rewarding.
When Champions Fall
While the latter rounds of the tournament are where surprise knockouts can happen, the group stages are where giants can be swallowed whole. For decades, the reigning champions opened the tournament, and that did not always bode well. In 2002, France opened as defending champions and came unstuck against Senegal. Their tournament didn’t get any better as they were knocked out of the group stage without scoring a single goal. Likewise, in 2018, Germany failed to advance from the group stage, losing to both South Korea and Mexico.
A driving reason for these results is complacency. Larger nations are more concerned with the whole tournament picture, rotating their squads and working out who they are likely to face in later rounds. The minnows, meanwhile, prepare for battle daily and fight as if every match is the final. As the tournament progresses, the weight of expectation bears down on the favourites. At the same time, the thrill of a run is motivation fuel for smaller nations reaching parts of the tournament they were never expected to. These results also serve as a reminder for bettors not to let name and reputation dictate where their money goes. The name on the back of the shirt does not guarantee a win.
The Truth About Surprise Winners
Single games are one thing, but history usually applies the brakes to giant killers. It would be a genuine upset if a team went all the way and took home the trophy. It’s happened at the European Championships, but the World Cup is different. Since the first tournament in 1930, only eight teams have won, and nearly all of them were among the favourites before the tournament started.
The closest thing to a true underdog triumph was in 1950, when Uruguay beat Brazil on home soil. Other notable runs into the latter stages include South Korea’s semi-final appearance in 2002 and Morocco’s in 2022. This paints a familiar picture and one that bookmakers understand better than most. Surprise results can be unpredictable. Surprise tournament winners are far less likely, because consistency is harder to bottle.
What This Means if You Like a Flutter
If you are considering placing a few bets on the upcoming tournament, approach it with two mindsets. For the long game, you are well served to look at the more prominent nations. For individual results, look at the history books and find teams that play a well-organised style, with a solid defence and the stamina to go for 90 minutes. A prime example would be Switzerland, who had the second-best defensive record in Europe through qualifying. Japan, whose organised, disciplined work ethic saw them beat both Germany and Spain in 2022, are another. To many, those results were shocking, but to anyone who had studied the teams rather than the rankings, they would not have been surprised.
The expanded 48-team format means there are likely to be more surprise results through the tournament, leaving the betting pool wide open. The important statistics should be available on the best World Cup betting sites, making it much easier to have a flutter armed with the knowledge you need.
Just remember that having a flutter is fun. For us as fans, the World Cup is about entertainment, not doubling our wages. If you want to bet, do so responsibly.
Reading the Signs Before You Back an Underdog
There are clues dotted through the history books that could reward those who study them. Tournaments played in extreme heat or at altitude have favoured certain teams, as the conditions can nullify raw talent to a certain extent. The opening round of games carries a weight that can stifle larger nations while inspiring smaller ones. Smaller teams bring a fearlessness to the opening round, as evidenced by Saudi Arabia’s 2022 win over Argentina. However, that is also the perfect example of an underdog doing enough to take a single game. The favourite tag still rises to the top over an entire tournament, as Argentina proved by recovering from that loss to take home the trophy.
In the latter stages, squad depth and fitness are paramount. For most nations, the World Cup comes at the end of a long season, with some players having already clocked upwards of 50 games. Injuries and fatigue are genuine threats. Losing one or two key players can force a nation to change its tactics, leaving it open to shock results.
The Takeaway
In live sport, there are no guarantees, and that applies to both favourites and underdogs. The job of events like the World Cup is to deliver the unexpected. Teams do not have a script to follow, and while quality wins out most of the time, it is the surprise moments – and the chance that something magical might happen – that keep people watching every game.
For those looking to place a few bets, backing the underdog is a great way to add excitement, but always do so with eyes wide open and an understanding that the most memorable moments are the ones nobody saw coming.
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