Home of football statistics and historyThe 2025/26 Premier League is entering its final stretch, and the battles across the table are heating up.
Arsenal continue to lead the way at the summit, desperate to end their 22-year wait for the league title, but Manchester City are breathing down their necks, determined to wrestle back the crown.
Elsewhere, the race for the Champions League slots between Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool is finely poised for some interesting twists and turns.
Further down the table, Tottenham Hotspur, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United, Burnley, and Wolverhampton are embroiled in a dogfight to avoid the drop.
The end of the season promises an enthralling spectacle, and in this article, we employ Opta’s League Prediction model to analyse the likelihood of these teams achieving their goals.
The Premier League title race: Can Arsenal fend off Man City?
Arsenal held a healthy eight-point lead at the top of the table, but Manchester City managed to slowly but surely cut it down.
Now, the Gunners are within reach, and Pep Guardiola’s side is looking to push them to the brink.
However, according to Opta’s latest predictions, Arsenal should have enough to stave off their challenge and clinch the title.
After three successive second-placed finishes, the Gunners are determined to hold on and secure the victory come May.
Arsenal put behind a miserable run of three wins in eight league games as they thrashed their North London rivals 4-1 in their last game.
Next up is Chelsea at the Emirates. The Blues haven’t defeated their London rivals since August 2021, and Arsenal have already beaten Liam Rosenior’s side twice this season. It should be a cake walk.
Arsenal also have a manageable run-in, with their most difficult match a visit to the Etihad Stadium on April 18, when the title will be won or lost.
Per the Opta model, Mikel Arteta’s side has an 83.1% chance of finishing first at the end of the season. It is their title to lose from here on.
Securing a Champions League spot for next season
All signs point to the Premier League securing five slots for next season’s Champions League.
With Arsenal, Man City, and Aston Villa likely to book their place among Europe’s elite next term, Man Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool must fight it out for the remaining two slots.
Manchester United have enjoyed a renaissance under interim manager Michael Carrick. Since his return to the Old Trafford dugout, no team has secured more Premier League points (16) (W5, D1).
Monday’s gritty win over Everton showed they can grind out results even when they are not at their very best. Unsurprisingly, they have an 28.81% chance of finishing fourth.
As for Chelsea, the Opta model predicts a fifth-place finish despite the Blues losing the two easiest of their fixture list, leading to fears they will likely miss out on Champions League football next season.
Instead, Opta has predicted that Liverpool will finish sixth in the league table after a weak title defence.
Who goes down? Who Stays up?
Wolves and Burnley are destined for the drop, but it remains to be seen which one of Tottenham, West Ham, Forest, or Leeds follows them down.
Per Opta’s model, West Ham are most likely to go down. They currently sit in 18th. But it is worth noting that they have recently found a new gear and shown more fight than before.
The Hammers are only three points away from Forest, and manager Nuno Espirito Santo will be desperate to get one over his former side.
Forest are on their fourth manager of the season, but continue to sit precariously above the danger zone.
Vitor Pereira’s tenure began with a loss to Liverpool, and they face a serious fight to avoid getting sucked into 18th place.
Meanwhile, Tottenham are yet to win a game in 2026 and have 12 players sidelined. They are already losing commercial partners.
Still, Igor Tudor stubbornly believes they will escape, and so does the Opta model.
Leeds have done enough to feel safe, the model predicts another year in the top-flight for Daniel Farke, thanks to a brilliant run of form since the switch to a 3-5-2 shape.
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